This is the inaugural issue of an AEIdeas series that will focus on elections and demographic voting patterns. During the 2022 campaign, we will look weekly at demographic subgroup averages from a month of polls. While Democrats have pulled ahead on the generic ballot, Republicans will be seeking to capitalize on areas of demographic weakness for Democrats come Election Day. This unique snapshot will provide a far better sense than any individual poll of key groups’ current preferences and how they are moving as we approach November 8th.
Generic Ballot Averages*
Aug. 9–Sep. 9
|Dem.||Rep.||Dem-Rep Margin||Number of Polls|
|White No College||30.2||59.0||-28.8||5|
Demographic Margin Trends
|Dem.||Rep.||Margin change from last week||Margin change from last month|
|White No College||30.2||59.0||-0.8||-5.4|
Previous election data is drawn from Catalist crosstab estimates. Catalist is a Democratic data analytics organization.
*How we did this: This month-long average is a compilation of online and live caller polls that release crosstabs. Internal and explicitly partisan polls are excluded. This edition averages polls from the Economist/YouGov, Quinnipiac University, Morning Consult/Politico, CBS News, Emerson, The Wall Street Journal, Rasmussen, Echelon Insights, Marist College/NPR/PBS NewsHour, and Fox News.
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